![]() ![]() Typically, this has been done with negative life events, like contracting a disease or getting a divorce - bad news cases that would elicit a strong emotional response. This methodology - known as ‘the update method’ - has participants estimate their chance of experiencing a life event and then re-estimate it after being provided with the average person’s actual chance of experiencing the event. ![]() The researchers conducted several experiments using a methodology that has been widely accepted in past optimism research. According to the authors, prior studies have generated ‘false positives’ - data patterns that look like people are being over-optimistic, where no such bias exists. However, a new study by researchers at the University of Bath, UCL, and Birkbeck, University of London, demonstrates flaws in research supporting the existence of optimism bias. while overestimating their chances of positive events.This over-optimistic tendency is taken into account by the UK government when planning large infrastructure projects. Dictionary definition showing the word optimistĪ new study casts doubt over claims that people are ‘optimistically biased’ about the future, a tendency that is thought to contribute to financial crises, people’s failure to look after their health, or inaction over climate change.įor decades scientists have believed that people have an ‘irrational optimism bias’ - they look too much to the bright side and underestimate their chances of negative experiences. ![]()
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